.png)
News & Market Updates
- HKS
- Sep 10, 2025
- 5 min read
The June 30 edition of Market Update examines the U.S. housing market.
This commentary explores tariffs and their impact on markets and the economy.
Last week, the equity markets experienced some volatility to wrap up the year with major U.S. indices falling several percentage points before a partial recovery rally on Friday offset much of the earlier losses. The markets continued to react to the Federal Reserve's hawkish indication of fewer rate cuts in 2025 than previously expected, which led to a surge in bond yields and a decline in stock prices.
Last week, U.S. stock indexes continued their positive momentum. The S&P 500 and Dow both hit new record levels, while the NASDAQ remained slightly below its recent high.
Last week, bullish market sentiment supported investors “buying the dip” throughout the week as buying pressures helped push the S&P 500 up 1.7%, despite dips throughout the week. Nvidia's earnings report showed strong results.
Last week, the equity markets experienced significant gains, with the S&P 500 posting its largest weekly gain of the year. This surge was largely driven by positive reactions to the U.S. election results, which were seen as favorable for corporate earnings.
Last week was eventful week as markets experienced notable movements driven by various factors. Rising bond yields contributed to interrupting the S&P 500’s six-week streak of gains, as stronger-than-expected economic data continue to temper expectations surrounding rate cuts.
Last week, the S&P 500 and Dow continued to reach record highs, driven by strong quarterly earnings and economic data. The September Retail Sales report exceeded expectations, boosting the SPX by 0.8% for the week.
An eventful week last week led to markets bouncing around but trending down for most of the week, resulting from increasing tensions in the Middle East and the East Coast port strike. After the strike tentatively ended late Thursday and a strong jobs report on Friday, we saw markets recover and post modest gains for the week.
Last week, the Federal Reserve's cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) instead of the typical 25 bps, bringing the Federal Funds Rate to a range of 4.75%-5.00%. Chairman Powell explained they believed inflation will continue to decrease towards their 2% target and signs of a softening labor market supported their decision to begin cutting rates.
Last week, the capital markets experienced increased volatility due to concerns about a slowing economy and persistent inflation. Despite these challenges, stocks have shown strong gains and are near record highs.
Stocks posted one of their largest weekly gains of the year following the pullback in recent weeks. Last week’s rally was driven by encouraging economic data, including continued reports of moderating inflation and a positive surprise on retail sales. Initial jobless claims came in below expectations for the second week in a row, which may suggest the recent increase in the unemployment rate could be due to an increasing labor pool size and not increasing layoffs.
As of the time of this writing, U.S. equities are down significantly, Japan has been clobbered, bonds are rallying, commodities are selling off, the Volatility Index (also known as the VIX) is flying, headlines are red, the talking heads are talking, and fear is building!
The markets were mixed last week led by a surge in the technology sector due in part to a positive earnings report from chip maker Nvidia. Other sectors did not fare as well due to some disappointing earnings results and signs of a housing market continuing to struggle.
The equity markets saw record highs this week following some optimistic news on the inflation front. Wednesday’s release of the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in below expectations with a monthly increase of 0.3%. Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors, was reported in line with analyst estimates and fell to its lowest reading in 3 years.
With a light week for economic releases, concerns over the U.S. job market were in focus as weekly jobless claims rose to their highest level since August with a gain of 231,000. Paired with last week’s lower than expected April Non-Farm Payroll report and the flat March JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) report, market participants are questioning whether higher interest rates have cooled the labor market.
Data in the last week of the quarter painted a bright picture of the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index, came in as expected for February with an increase of 2.5% for the year.
The Federal Reserve’s “dot-plot” was back in the news this week following the March FOMC meeting. While no rate cuts were announced at this meeting, the new pattern of expected Fed moves implies three cuts at some point in 2024. The dot plot also shows a multi-year process of bringing the Fed Funds rate down to 3.1% by 2026.
The equity markets could not hold on to their recent rally and closed with a loss this week. Friday’s better than expected job report pushed two of the major indices into record territory but then profit-taking brought stocks lower to end the week. The February non-farm payroll report beat expectations with an increase of 275,000 jobs, but December’s and January’s numbers were revised lower.
Despite some mixed economic news this week, the equity markets continued to reach record levels. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both closed at all-time highs on Friday, after ending February with their best monthly return in nine years.
Surprising inflation numbers led to an equity market sell-off last week resulting in the S&P’s first decline in five weeks. The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at an annual rate of 3.1%, which was higher than economists’ expectations of 2.9%. This was followed later in the week by the Producer Price Index (PPI), which also exceeded analysts’ estimates with a reading of 0.3% for January, the highest level in five months.
Earnings reports drove the markets higher this week led by positive results from technology providers, automakers, and pharmaceutical companies. Financial data company Factset is reporting of the S&P 500 companies that reported fourth quarter 2023 results 77% reported earnings above estimates and 65% reported revenue above expectations.
Last week was packed with economic data, earnings reports, and a surprising jobs number, but Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was in the spotlight with his comments on potential rate cuts. As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not change rates at their January meeting, but Chairman Powell acknowledged rate cuts are not likely at their next meeting in March.
Capital Markets Snapshot - January 19, 2024 While the economic data remains mixed, the American consumer appears to have an optimistic outlook. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index jumped in January to 78.8 from 69.7 in December 2023.
Inflation data over the past week reminded investors despite positive trends higher prices are still present in the economy. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in higher than expected for December with an increase of 0.3% and was up 3.4% on a year over year basis.